CAN THE G7 SUCCEED IN ITS AIM TO SLAY A WAKING DRAGON…. and save the western world
G7 top honchos are meeting face-to-face this weekend at the G7 annual summit to be held in the U K. This is a gathering of leaders of 7 leading democratic nations in the world for the annual heads-of-state meeting. Last year’s meeting was cancelled, due to the pandemic that was rampaging the globe non-stop.
Current members of G7, which was established in 1975.
This year, G7 leaders will discuss a multitude of world issues including the on-going pandemic, vaccine production and distribution to the world, economic recovery post pandemic, human rights, environment, democracy amongst other pressing global topics.
The nations belonging to the G7 are the world’s wealthiest large democracies. They are close allies as well as major trading partners with each other. They are partners operating with the same system and values, on the same page on most world issues. So as a result, continued G7 solidarity is an easy image to project, but realistically, the G7 grouping’s relevancy and leadership in the new world is being questioned.
It has been said that the G7 is a shadow of its former self, where during the 70s, it used to demonstrate strong leadership and practically drive the world economy. Recent global realignment has introduced new factors into the equation that will disturb the current world order and arrangements. China is the big invisible elephant in the G7 summit rooms where the leaders are meeting and will be on their minds constantly. China is indeed a geopolitical headache for the G7.
It is important to note that for this particular G7 meeting, there are several notable invitees c to this exclusive gathering – the leaders of four Asian, Oceania and African countries of India, South Korea, Australia and South Africa. It gives credence to the notion that there is a supplementary agenda that G7 hopes to raise and discussed on, that centres on China and perhaps Russia as well. Discussions that will benefit from expected support and endorsement from these invited parties, who are largely amenable to the wishes of G7.
The US would ideally like to have G7 and the whole EU family firmly on its side in fighting a new perceived threat emerging over the horizon. However, the EU and their ASIAN friends such as Japan, South Korea and Philippines would prefer to tread a more middle path, recognising the high cost to their economies if they unwisely make China an enemy. There is a clear case in Australia, that has seen its economy almost totally up-ended, as China retaliates with trade and economic sanctions for perceived acts by Australia against China’s interest.
(See Singapore PM Lee’s sincere advice to Australian PM Morrison at the end of this article)
Biden’s clarion call that “America is back”, which is his pet phrase that he has trumpeted again at G7 deliberations, is just empty rhetoric unless it is backed up by real leadership deliverables that are significant. Solving the pandemic problem, accelerating world vaccinations drives are not issues that G7 can solve alone, so some credit can only be given for the new initiatives and partial efforts announced. Biden’s call for a new infrastructure initiative by G7 to counter China’s BRI has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Biden is playing catch-up to the Chinese in this global infrastructure-building effort, starting from a long, long way behind.
The Belt and Road Initiative BRI was launched back in 2013 by President Xi Jinping. China has since signed up more than 100 countries as participants, in 2600 projects spanning east Asia to Europe to all parts of the globe. The total value of all the BRI projects amount to US$3.7 trillion by mid-2020.
So, if the US is back, this is the ambitious targets for G7 to match, if not surpass. Sadly, it is not in the west’s nature to dish out large amount of hard cash for non-tangible returns, in particular to external parties. The Europeans have been used to looting and plundering from its colonies in India and Asia. The Americans have been hijacking millions of Africans to force them into slavery back in the US. The US has started wars and fomented unrest and uprisings in the Middle East, Afghanistan, South America and many other places. This change of heart into an angel bearing cash and gifts is hard to believe.
China is aware of its strengths and enviable bargaining position, if and when needed to rise up to to any challenges. China is a major world manufacturing centre, providing goods and essential items to the world at cheap affordable prices. It is unimaginable to see how many families in the world can live comfortably without the access to “made-in-China” products and essentials. It is China that keeps inflation pressure down and prices of goods stable. In addition, China’s huge 1.4 billion population is a mouth-watering consumer market for the technology products of the west, like iPhones, cars, planes, etc. China is also a major market for the world’s agricultural products, mineral and natural resources as well.
So, from a strategic viewpoint, the world recognises the position and value of China as a economic and trading partner. Geopolitical differences will have to be pushed to the sideline.
French President Emmanuel Macron has intentionally pre-empted any Biden move to coral G7 nations to side with US against China. He welcomed President Biden’s reaffirmed embrace of Europe and multilateralism at the start of the summit, but he also made clear that after four years of faring without U.S. leadership during the Trump era, Europe would continue to stake its own positions and not be blindly led by anyone.
For many countries , the cost of decoupling China will mean paying a high economic price that few can afford. China is and will continue to remain as their number one trading partner. So in this respect, China has a key trump card to play in the geopolitical game of one-upmanship.
Unilaterally, the past US administrations have already initiated specific targeted actions towards China, including sanctions and restrictions against China’s technology giants like Huawei and ByteDance, as well as their top AI and supercomputer companies, banning China from participating in the international space station and so on. The Biden administration has further taken the ball from Trump and played it several steps forward. Recently, it has introduced a new so-called Strategic Competition Act of 2021, where as much as $300 million has been allocated to use the media to demean China and the BRI projects all over the world.
The containment efforts are in full swing and will only gain momentum in coming years.
As a G7 grouping, however, it appears that the voice on the China issue is not a common one. In addition, South Korea, Japan and South Africa will be careful not to be seen as toeing too close the Western agenda of trying to contain and smear China. G7 member Australia and India are perhaps the exceptions. India is a sworn rival of China and both sides have some serious unresolved common border disputes. Australia continues to unwisely antagonises its number one trading partner, paying a heavy price in the process.
It would be interesting to see where the Australian will eventually places its bets, as the wheel spins. Having been forced to stay at the end of the whipping stick for the past one year, it is presumably quite untenable for it to stubbornly prolong its agonising economic malaise indefinitely. Their wine and grapes industry, their lobster fisheries, coal exporters, barley growers and others are in dire situations, ever since the Chinese market has been abruptly cut off for them.
The Chinese is wisely playing the ‘tai-chi’ game for the moment, making slow, measured and calculated moves, like the ancient traditional tai-chi exercise. It is bidding it’s time, as time has always been on the side of the Chinese. The Chinese civilisation’s survival and progress over 5000 years of history is a testament to their patience and perception of operational timelines. We can surmise that China will observe carefully and respond in appropriate ways against the onslaught of opposition forces when the time is right.
To sum it up, instead of trying to slay the dragon, isn’t it better if we can find a different path to deal with China.
As the Australian PM Morrison made his way to G7 Summit, he did a stopover at Singapore Airport where he met with PM Lee Hsien Loong. PM Lee offered the following advice to Morrison :
“The relationship with China is one of the biggest policy questions for every major power in the world. You need to work with the country, it is going to be there, it is going to be a substantial presence and you can co-operate with it, you can engage it, you can negotiate with it, but it has to be a long mutually constructive process.
You don’t have to become like them, neither can you hope to make them become like you. You have to be able to to work on that basis, that this is a big world in which there are different countries and work with others who are not completely like-minded but with whom you have many issues where your interests do not align and where your mutual cooperation is necessary.
There will be rough spots ….but deal with them as issues in a partnership which you want to keep going and not issues which add up to an adversary which you are trying to suppress”.
These are word of advice which can also apply to the US and all the other G7 members, in dealing with the rising dragon.
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